Inside QSR
Regional performance data from 2024-2025 reveals widening gaps between markets as operators face 11 consecutive months of traffic declines.
By Justin K. Sellers · 14 min read · February 28, 2026
Sixty percent of restaurant operators reported lower customer traffic in December 2025. That marked the 11th consecutive month of traffic declines.
But the national average masks dramatic regional divergence. The Midwest posted +1.5% average same-store sales growth while the West barely stayed positive at +0.3%—a 1.2 percentage point gap that didn't exist in 2019.
California has been the weakest region since March 2025. Traffic declines are most pronounced in zip codes with large Hispanic populations, and the state posted negative same-store sales in eight of twelve months through October 2025. Florida, meanwhile, led same-store sales growth for three consecutive months through October. Alaska posted 5% summer transaction growth. Maine and South Dakota each hit 4% during the same period.
The data suggests where you build matters more than it has in a decade.
The data reveals four distinct regional performance tiers in 2025.
The Midwest led all regions at +1.5% average same-store sales growth across 12 states, with South Dakota and Ohio posting particularly strong numbers at +4% and +2% respectively. The Southeast followed at +1.3% average growth—Florida at +4%, Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee each at +2%.
The Northeast posted +0.9% average growth, led by Maine at +4%, while Massachusetts and Vermont stayed flat. The West averaged just +0.3% across 10 states. Alaska outperformed at +5%, but California, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado all posted -2% declines.
The 1.2 percentage point gap between the Midwest and West represents the widest regional divergence in same-store sales since Black Box Intelligence began tracking the metric in 2015.
California is the largest restaurant market in the United States. A -2% decline there has disproportionate impact on national metrics.
Eight of twelve months through October 2025 posted negative same-store sales. Traffic drops were steepest in zip codes with large Hispanic populations. By contrast, the Midwest, Southwest, and Southeast delivered the strongest one-year and two-year sales growth rates in Black Box Intelligence's August 2025 report.
Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, and Tennessee represent the top states for franchise growth in 2025—favorable business climates, growing populations, strong consumer demand. None of these were California.
This is exactly why brands are betting on these markets. Cluck Clucks chose Sugar Land, Texas for its first US location to access Houston's 313,000+ Muslim community. Wonder is targeting 100+ Texas locations in 16 months. The regional data validates what these brands already figured out: the growth is in the Southeast and Texas corridor, not the coasts.
Americans spent an average of $191 per month dining out in 2024—up from $166 in 2023. That's a 15% increase in monthly spending.
But traffic declined 11 consecutive months through December 2025.
Restaurant spending as a share of total food dollars hit an all-time high of 55.1% in 2023, holding roughly steady through 2024 and into 2025. In inflation-adjusted terms, spending on food away from home has grown more than two times faster than grocery spending since 2019.
Consumers aren't eating at home more. They're rationing visits while maintaining overall spend through higher per-visit expenditures driven by menu price increases.
Sixty-nine percent of consumers say they're eating more at home, and 85% of that group say they're doing it to save money. But "eating more at home to save money" while still allocating 55% of food budgets to restaurants means consumers are cutting frequency, not abandoning restaurants entirely.
This spending paradox is exactly what PE firms are evaluating when they acquire QSR brands — average unit volumes matter more than traffic counts when consumers are spending more per visit.
Casual dining posted +5.2% same-store sales growth in 2024–2025, far outpacing every other segment. Quick-service restaurants managed +0.4%. Family dining declined -1.2%.
Chili's saw customer visits surge nearly 29% in January 2025, 17% in February, and 22% in March. Texas Roadhouse posted double-digit sales increases in 2024, with estimated consumer spending rising 14%.
What's happening is that young people are coming in after they've seen us on TikTok, and they're like, 'Wow, this experience is really good,' and it becomes a part of the rotation. — Chili's CEO Kevin Hochman, Earnings Call, January 2025
But beneath the positive headlines, only 44% of casual dining companies tracked by Black Box Intelligence posted positive same-store sales growth in August 2025. More than half of casual dining brands are losing while the segment posts industry-leading growth.
The industry continues to post optimistic headline results, but beneath the surface it remains a story of haves and have-nots, with many companies struggling despite apparent overall strength. — Black Box Intelligence, October 2025
That pattern isn't just a casual dining phenomenon. We've documented the same dynamic in QSR leadership — the brands that cycle through CEOs are overwhelmingly the ones on the have-not side of the ledger.
Quick-service restaurants saw a 1.6% decline in visits in Q1 2025, following a 3.5% year-over-year traffic decline in Q1 2024. Nearly 80% of Americans now believe fast food is a "luxury."
McDonald's first identified a "trading out" phenomenon in February 2024, noting consumers were shifting purchases to grocery stores. Walmart publicly stated it was gaining restaurant customers looking for value. Technomic initially expected 5.3% restaurant sales growth in 2024, then revised downward to 3.8%—citing high prices and weak traffic.
Family dining remains the weakest segment in both sales and traffic, posting two consecutive months of negative same-store sales through October 2025.
In this environment, operators who retain their best people, protect unit-level economics, and invest in the right operational tools are better positioned than those chasing traffic with discounts. The franchise models built around cash flow rather than traffic volume are better equipped to weather this shift.
About 70% of U.S. consumers order delivery in a typical month, 70% pick up takeout, and 68% dine in. Most people are doing all three—not choosing one channel over another.
Takeout has become an essential part of the lifestyle for 51% of consumers, including 67% of Gen Z adults and 64% of millennials. When asked to choose between pickup and delivery, 65% opt to pick up. Consumers spend an average of $88.50 per month on food ordered for takeout or delivery, in addition to what they spend dining out.
The off-premise shift didn't replace the dining room. It added a second and third revenue layer on top of it.
Eight months of consecutive decline isn't a trend. It's a new baseline.
- California traffic permanence: Whether California's 8-month consecutive decline is permanent or temporary — and why Hispanic-majority zip codes are showing the steepest traffic drops while wealthier zip codes show relative resilience. - Florida growth attribution: How much of Florida's 3-month growth reflects real demand versus easy comparisons to last year's hurricane disruptions — isolating the baseline requires at least two more quarters of data. - Winner-take-all trajectory: Whether the 44% vs. 56% split between growing and declining brands will widen further — or whether this is becoming a permanent bifurcation rather than a temporary divergence. - 2026 traffic trajectory: Whether QSR traffic will stabilize in 2026 or continue declining — and whether the "fast food is a luxury" consumer perception, once formed, reverses without meaningful price rollbacks. - Regional divergence durability: Whether the Midwest-to-West regional gap is temporary or structural — the widest divergence since Black Box Intelligence began tracking this data.
This analysis cites multiple independent industry sources to provide comprehensive operator-focused research. We reference publicly available data with full attribution and direct links to support our independent analysis.
QSR Research Hub is an independent publication. We are not affiliated with any brand, corporation, or entity discussed in this article and receive no compensation for citations or analysis.
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And subscribe free — get it delivered to your inbox. Subscribe to QSR Research Hub1. National Restaurant Association. "Same-store sales and customer traffic." December 2025. https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/economic-indicators/same-store-sales-and-customer-traffic/
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